2024: GET YOUR ASS ON-CHAIN
If you're reading this, congratulations. You survived. Now it's time to get your ass off autopilot and get to work.
The following outlines how I believe 2024 is going to play out. Before we dive in, here’s why you should care about what I have to say (This is where I get to suck myself off for having the best predictions out of anyone):
For the past 18 months, I have preached one thing and one thing only. Get ETH and put it in smart places on-chain. I bet the house on stETH in June 2022 (<$1k/token), and posted it in real-time:
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
At the same time, I said to get ETH and find smart easy ways to compound it on-chain, flagging LST like Lido as the easy trade.
I explained different strategies in depth on how to take advantage of leverage LST exposure.
Things were different in Summer 2022. This was not kino, mainstream advice, like it is now, and many many Smart Guys said I was talking about doing stuff “just like Tera Luna” and going to zero (seriously, just look at the comments on the TikTok above).
I doubled down going into 2023 with my longform article predicting that Liquid Staking and Liquid Staking DeFi is going to revitalize the space and be our ticket to prosperity. Looking at year-in-review commentary, that thesis was spot on -
https://twitter.com/Delphi_Digital/status/1740463277099151482
And I went to bat on TikTok preaching the same gospel going into the year as well:
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
Thank you for reading so far and make sure to tell all your friends that this guy hit the predictions harder than anyone else. Now, without further ado
2024: GET YOUR ASS ON-CHAIN
Tides are shifting back in our favor, and everything in my body is telling me that we’re going back to valhalla for one more ride. What that means for you, fellow degen, is its time to fucking capitalize. I hope you filled out your ETH stack, hit the free yield, and built a bit of capital for yourself. It’s time to pounce before midcurve retail returns.
Here’s how: start doing stuff and don’t stop.
More eloquently, I believe that each bull market has been predecessed and fueled by some flywheel innovation in microwork. I explain it in depth here:
https://twitter.com/jeffthedunker/status/1735147062067687585
In summary, we have seen microwork metas emerge through which everyone who did stuff was rewarded handsomely, levered those gains into the casino, and sparked glorious bull run. The 2013 bull run was microwork for BTC on Bitcointalk forums. 2017 was sparked by introduction of shitcoin-allocation-for-microwork. 2021 was fueled by airdrop mania.
And 2024 will be the year to microwork your ass off for stupid ROI that realizes in the 2025 mania. And that microwork flywheel is being lit as we speak with the emerging points meta.
The same Very Smart People who told you to stay away from LSTs are also talking about how destructive and evil points are. These are the resident crypto NIMBYs who must be counter-signaled at all costs.
Points are fucking awesome. They much more eloquently align projects and individuals by explicitly, quantitatively rewarding exactly the work needed. Pojects succeed, the individuals who help it happen are incentivized. It’s a far more intentional, effective, and compliant system.
My advice for 2024 is to farm the fuck out of as many point opportunities as you can. Hit every single app that is offering points for activities. Send your ETH that you compounded the past 18 months to TVL based points programs. I’m doing it at scale and I’m going to benefit tremendously. I have my Eigenlayer points, Manta NFTs, Mantle Journey Miles, and a host of others.
I’m iterating through a points cheat sheet, bookmark it and use it as a starting point for your own pursuits.
Some other tips:
Get your assets onto the different upcoming L2s. Gas becomes trivial and many networks + the protocols that prop up on top of them are going to be delivering points (and then tokens).
On-chain > off-chain. But off-chain > nothing.
Get yourself organized. I recommend Todoist for task management.
Treat your activities like investments. Gauge your time, capital at risk, and any lockups. Maximize all of this.
You will never go broke compounding ETH and Stablecoins. If you don’t like ETH, pick another major as your reserve asset to stack.
This microwork mania ultimately collapses on itself, but right now it favors the HQ active users around now, not a year from now when the apes return from their sabbatical to AI.
Obligatory Other 2024 Predictions:
LST momentum is still good. Restaking is awesome. There will be more exotic and risky LST leverage. NIMBYs will continue to complain about it, but for the most part things will work as intended. Once the apes come back all bets are off. We probably start to see the most dangerous leverage blow up spectacularly in H2 2025. And more impactful blow ups 2026. But not 2024.
Social/Identity Layer will start to show some merit. It is a necessary underpinning for good, working DAO models.
DeFi will make its way back in vogue, yields will continue to trend up, as they had throughout 2023 (as I predicted).
L2s will final achieve some specialization and differentiation. Not everything is about credibly neutral scaling. Blast and Mantle are examples of “biased” L2s with more discreet functionality. It will still be icky for NIMBYs but these types of networks will have good success.
A bunch of new innovation that in no way behaves like or adheres to similar mechanics to Tera Luna will be compared to Tera Luna by NIMBYs yet not blow up.
dis y we fren